Review:

Yesterday the gold price opened at 660.6. Due to the bullish market sentiment, gold price was rising in the asia market. As USD ran weak from the result of trade balance, gold price reached 7th months highest spot at 668.4 and pull back to 661.1by profit taking. IEA announuce the adjustment to increase the use of oil in 2007 which raise the bullish market sentiment and the gold price closed at 664.

Technical Analysis:

Hourly Chart

From the hourly chart we see the support is now moved up to 663. Resistance is on 669.
SMA10 (664.84) and above SMA50 (663.84) means we can long position when gold price near SMA50.
RSI is on 63.188 indicate still strong buying power.
MACD just crossed over from the bottom indicate the price is starting a rising trend.

Daily Chart

From the daily chart we can see the major support is on 660.22. It explained there is a buying power whenever the gold price near 660-663.
RSI is on 69.475 indicate it is on a strong buying power.
MACD is showing it is on a rising trend
Stochastic shows likely crossing over from the top that indicating the top would be near 668.4.

Market data:

Trade Balance for DEC
Acutal -$61.2B
Consensus -$59.5B
Prior -$58.1B
Revised -$58.2B

IEA made the raise adjustment for the oil use in 2007.

Today's market data:
Retail Sales for Jan (20:00) Consensus 0.3% Prior 0.9%
Retail Sales ex-auto Jan (21:30) Consensus 0.4% Prior 1.0%
US Business Inventories (23:00) Consensus -0.1% Prior 0.4%
Crude Inventories for 02/09

Forecast

As the highest price for yesterday 668.4 and lowest price 661.1was higher then the day before highest at 668.2 lowest 660.6. We can expect the price highest price would be higher than yesterday, and the lowest price would be near 662-663. If the price break through 670 the next resistance is on 676. I would exepct 676 is a great resistance. The market is waiting for Bernnake speech in the later of the day (HK time 20:00), and the IEA weekly oil inventory report.

Strategy
Long Position : 663, 665
Short Position : 668, 676