Review:

(12/Feb/2007 - 16/Feb/2007) performance
Last week opened at 666.4, closed at 668.7, week high at 671.85, week low at 659.65 and recorded 0.34% growth. Weakening of USD and oil price are supporting gold price, especially from Bernanke speech last friday.

20/Feb/2007
Yesterday the opened at 669.2, day high at 671.9, day low at 656.5 and closed at 658.4. The price was dropped 2% while crude oil decline more than 3% in US market and USD firmed. Gold generally moves in opposite direction of USD, which is rebouding after 3 straight weekly declines against a basket o 6 major currencies.

Crude oil fell as warmer weather moved into the eastern US and Europe, curbing in heating fuel consuption. Demand for heating in the Northeast US will be just 3% above normal in the week ending of Feb, which is far from projection of 8.4% above average in the beginning of the month. Refiners are shutting units because of lower demand and preparing for the gasoline season.

Technical:

Daily Chart

Technically we can see the trend is still persist. However, the declined from yesterday gets the gold testing 20SMA at 657.07. We can see the price bounce back quickly from 656.5 and spot price at 660.8. From Stochastic and MACD we can see the price is likely to drop from the peak. RSI is near middle level at 53.464, the supporting is now on 642, 648, 656. Resistance on 664, 669, 676

Hourly Chart

RIS is now at 47.287, stochastic and MACD indicating the price is about to climb. The price need to test the resisitance at near 664 in order to project to 672.

US Market Data:

Consensus Prior
CPI(JAN) 2.0% 2.0%
FOMC minutes 5.25% 5.25%
Fed's Yellen Speaks on Economic outlook in Sanata Clara

Strategy:

Long Position : $656, $648
Short Position : $664, $669