Review:

(26-Feb-2007 - 02-Mar-2007)
The week opened at 681.3 and closed at 642.2, week high at 689.1 and week low at 640.9. It was a dramatical movement week. The week high and week low different with 48.2 and 5.73% down compared with week opened. In general gold price move along same direction with oil. Oil price was rised up to 61.30 last week. However, the gold was down and opposite direction to oil and oil price increased this week, and this is caused by the short position of carry trades of JPY as JPY rised from 122.3 to 116.8. Short position of carry trades will expect will go on until the completion of Japan annual settlement.

Technical:

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, we can see the current resistance is near 689. The upper trend still persist and cannot conclude the sentiment has turned. The price is testing SMA 50 (645.57) , and SMA100 (632.58) is next major support, resistance is near 656. From the stochastic graph, RSI, MACD are clearly stated the price is down.

Hourly Chart

On the hourly chart, stochastic, RSI and MACD are on a low bar. Especailly RSI is on 19.701. However, MACD is still haven't turn from low range. SMA 100 has crossed SMA 200 and noted that SMA 10 and SMA 50 are all below SMA 200. In the hourly chart we can see the market is quite bearish.

Market Data:

The short position of JPY carry trade would bring down the gold market and other commodities market. I would expect the activities would go on until the completion of Japan annual settlement.

Strategy:

Long Position: 640, 632
Stop Loss : 637,628

Short Positon: 646, 654
Stop Loss: 650, 658