星期一, 4月 02, 2007





Review:

Last week opened at 657.25, week high at 669.5, week low at 654.8 and closed at 663.2, it had 0.91% increased and the range with 14.7. The gold has been raised continously for 4 weeks. By compare to the year opened at 636.3, it already raised for 4.21%. In the first quarter the gold has been moving up and down greatly. The gold followed crude oil dropped to 662 from year opened at 636.3 then raised to 7 months high 689 caused by the tension in Iran and running in recession of USD. The slump from China's stock causes investors withdraw money from other markets to compensate on the lost in stock market. Gold was fallen from Year high 689 to 632, and currently gold has raised to 663.6/4.6 at spot.

Techincal:

Weekly Chart

On the weekly chart wee can see gold have been raised 4 weeks consecutively. From the previous patent gold has been raised for 7 consecutive weeks. The gold is now ahead to the resistance 677, support on 656. However, the the gold shouldn't fall below 660 if this bullsih trend still persist as last week closed at 663.2 and SMA 10 is on 659.25. It is very clear that the SMA 10 is above SMA 20 and other indicators signals the gold is on bullish trend.

Daily Chart

The daily chart indicate the resistance is on 668 and support is on 656. The other indicators such as RSI, MACD are divergence to stochastic. The divergence means the gold have reach the bottom and should technically go up. SMA 10 is slight below SMA20 signals it is not the right time to buy gold in the market. It should wait until the gold on the supporting before buy gold.

Market News and Data:

Last Friday U.S have confirmed to abondan China companies import rebate. The USD have dropped and boost gold rebound from 662 and reached the day high at 667.9. Japanese has released their CPI and the first drop from 10 months, and the first quarter of Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (1Q) have resulted 23 from last quarter of 25.

Long holiday is starting from this Thursday and investors should be cautions fund managers would sell or reduce stocks/units on hand.

ISM manufacturing (MAR) will be release on 22:00. Consensus with 51, prior 52.3. Expecting the result would be similar to consensus.

Strategy:

Long Position: 663, 656
Stop Loss: 660, 653

Short Position: 665, 659
Stop Loss: 668, 662

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