Review:

26-Feb-2007
The gold price was opened at 681.3, day high at 689, day low 681.3 and closed at 687. The price rised 0.84% and was rising since opened. The oil market and the general strength of comomodities are helping gold, note that some investors buy gold when energy cost climb to hedge against inflation. Iran's nuclear research program has triggered oil and gold rising in the past week.

Technical:

Daily Chart

Technically from the daily gold chart, we can see the spot gold price climbed above the resistance of $676 and ahead to $730 at the moment. The up trend still valid. However, RSI, Stochastic is showing the price is on a high level and indicating the price may go down very soon. MACD is indicating rising trend.

Hour Chart

Stochastic and RSI are on middle level, according from the previous trend, we can assume the gold price would bounce back whenever RSI reach near 30. We can long gold when RSI near 30 and currently RSI is on 45.122. MACD is going on the down side direction and indicating the digestion of market from rising in the past weeks.

Market data:

Iran rejected demands made by Western countries to suspend uranium enrichement and there is some caution in the market over the possibility of tensions over Iran's nuclear program. Oil price is currently above $61

Consensus Prior
Durable goods orders excluding transportation (JAN) -0.3% 2.7%
Consumer Confidence (FEB) 109 110.3
Existing home sales (JAN) 6.24M 6.22M

Strategy:

Long Position: $677, $681
Stop Loss : $672

Short Position: $688, $693
Stop Loss : $697

Review:

(12/Feb/2007 - 16/Feb/2007) performance
Last week opened at 666.4, closed at 668.7, week high at 671.85, week low at 659.65 and recorded 0.34% growth. Weakening of USD and oil price are supporting gold price, especially from Bernanke speech last friday.

20/Feb/2007
Yesterday the opened at 669.2, day high at 671.9, day low at 656.5 and closed at 658.4. The price was dropped 2% while crude oil decline more than 3% in US market and USD firmed. Gold generally moves in opposite direction of USD, which is rebouding after 3 straight weekly declines against a basket o 6 major currencies.

Crude oil fell as warmer weather moved into the eastern US and Europe, curbing in heating fuel consuption. Demand for heating in the Northeast US will be just 3% above normal in the week ending of Feb, which is far from projection of 8.4% above average in the beginning of the month. Refiners are shutting units because of lower demand and preparing for the gasoline season.

Technical:

Daily Chart

Technically we can see the trend is still persist. However, the declined from yesterday gets the gold testing 20SMA at 657.07. We can see the price bounce back quickly from 656.5 and spot price at 660.8. From Stochastic and MACD we can see the price is likely to drop from the peak. RSI is near middle level at 53.464, the supporting is now on 642, 648, 656. Resistance on 664, 669, 676

Hourly Chart

RIS is now at 47.287, stochastic and MACD indicating the price is about to climb. The price need to test the resisitance at near 664 in order to project to 672.

US Market Data:

Consensus Prior
CPI(JAN) 2.0% 2.0%
FOMC minutes 5.25% 5.25%
Fed's Yellen Speaks on Economic outlook in Sanata Clara

Strategy:

Long Position : $656, $648
Short Position : $664, $669

Review:

The price was opened at 663.65 and was rising from the Asia market till the New York market. It reached the day high at 671.75 caused by Bernnake speech mention in calm inflation. It then dropped back to 664.85 as oil price dropped more than a dollar because the EIA announced the current inventory level would satisfy the needs for this winter season. The price fluctuated between 667 - 669 and was closed at 668.5 from the recover of oil dropped.

Technical Analysis:

Hourly Chart

The chart shows it reached highest point with opposite to RSI, Stochastic, and MACD. It usually gives a hint that the price will drop. However, we can see there is strong buying power. Supporting is now moved up to 666 and resistance is on 676

Daily Chart

In the daily chart we can see the up trend still persist. RSI still on a high level (69.472), Stochastic is cross over on top, MACD show still on a rising trend.

Market data:

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2007/02/calendar/calendar/Calendar_02-09-07a.pdf

Although oil inventory level lower than the previous week. However, it was more than expectation drop, and investment predict it would be enough for the rest of winter season. Note that according from weather.com that cold weather will finish next week.

In addition, market is trying to define the meaning behind of Bernnake speech. Bernnake will have another speech at the end of today.

Strategy:

Long Position: 666, 672.5
Stop Loss : 662

Short Position: 671, 676.5
Stop Loss : 679

Review:

Yesterday the gold price opened at 660.6. Due to the bullish market sentiment, gold price was rising in the asia market. As USD ran weak from the result of trade balance, gold price reached 7th months highest spot at 668.4 and pull back to 661.1by profit taking. IEA announuce the adjustment to increase the use of oil in 2007 which raise the bullish market sentiment and the gold price closed at 664.

Technical Analysis:

Hourly Chart

From the hourly chart we see the support is now moved up to 663. Resistance is on 669.
SMA10 (664.84) and above SMA50 (663.84) means we can long position when gold price near SMA50.
RSI is on 63.188 indicate still strong buying power.
MACD just crossed over from the bottom indicate the price is starting a rising trend.

Daily Chart

From the daily chart we can see the major support is on 660.22. It explained there is a buying power whenever the gold price near 660-663.
RSI is on 69.475 indicate it is on a strong buying power.
MACD is showing it is on a rising trend
Stochastic shows likely crossing over from the top that indicating the top would be near 668.4.

Market data:

Trade Balance for DEC
Acutal -$61.2B
Consensus -$59.5B
Prior -$58.1B
Revised -$58.2B

IEA made the raise adjustment for the oil use in 2007.

Today's market data:
Retail Sales for Jan (20:00) Consensus 0.3% Prior 0.9%
Retail Sales ex-auto Jan (21:30) Consensus 0.4% Prior 1.0%
US Business Inventories (23:00) Consensus -0.1% Prior 0.4%
Crude Inventories for 02/09

Forecast

As the highest price for yesterday 668.4 and lowest price 661.1was higher then the day before highest at 668.2 lowest 660.6. We can expect the price highest price would be higher than yesterday, and the lowest price would be near 662-663. If the price break through 670 the next resistance is on 676. I would exepct 676 is a great resistance. The market is waiting for Bernnake speech in the later of the day (HK time 20:00), and the IEA weekly oil inventory report.

Strategy
Long Position : 663, 665
Short Position : 668, 676

Technical Analysis:

From the Hourly chart we can see that there is a great support on 661.5. Upward trend still ongoing, we can see there is purchasing power near 661-663.

RSI is on 54.165 and it is on a rising trend. MACD is just cross over from bottom. Indicating buying signal.

On the Daily chart, RSI is on 66.123, stating the buying power still strong, and MACD still on a upper level, however stochastic is starting cross over on top, this give a signal that 669 may be the highest point in the near future.

News:

There is no market data yesterday night. Treasury budget (Jan) is USD 382 Billion which is slightly lower consensus (USD 400 Billion) that has lower the strength of USD index from 85.15 down to 85.00.
Saudi Arabia Oil Minister has delcare there is not necessary for additonal crude oil cut on production, and will increase shipment to Asian refiners. That causes oil dropped $2 to 57.78.

Strategy:

Long @ 662, 657
Stop loss @ 654


Short @ 665, 668
Stop loss @ 672